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Future World Oil Prices and Production Levels: An Economic Analysis

Abstract:
This paper is motivated by our beliefs that (1) economics does matter in world oil markets and (2) today's applied models either entirely neglect or (at best) only partially incorporate well-known economic fundamentals. We know of no applied model preceding ours that fully embodies the fundamental microeconomics of both depletable resources and industrial market structure (specifically dominant firm cartel theory) that characterize the world oil market.

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Energy Specializations: Petroleum – Markets and Prices for Crude Oil and Products; Energy and the Economy – Energy as a Productive Input; Energy and the Economy –Economic Growth and Energy Demand; Energy and the Economy – Resource Endowments and Economic Performance; Energy and the Economy – Energy Shocks and Business Cycles

JEL Codes:
L13 - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
O13 - Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
Q34 - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
F44 - International Business Cycles

Keywords: Oil prices, Forecasting, Oil Production, Economic analysis, OPEC, Behavioral model

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No1-1


Published in Volume 7, Number 1 of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.