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Unravelling a Riddle: The Outlook for Russian Oil

Russia's oil output has been declining. Yet the potential for new discoveries and development remains huge. Whether these opportunities will be seized and current attrition arrested depends on the hydrocarbon sector regime now evolving. Uncertainties on legislation, jurisdictional boundaries, pricing policies and political structures make the investment climate less than benign. Such uncertainties lead to a very marked spread in expectations about future levels of Russian oil output.

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Energy Specializations: Petroleum – Markets and Prices for Crude Oil and Products; Petroleum – Policy and Regulation; Energy Modeling – Forecasting and Market Analysis

JEL Codes:
L13 - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
E60 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General
D4 -

Keywords: Oil production, Russia, oil prices, Forecasting, energy investment

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-8

Published in Volume 15, Special Issue of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.