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An Econometric Analysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures

W. David Walls

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No1-5
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Abstract:
This research tests a form of the efficient markets hypothesis in the, market for natural gas futures. Unlike other studies of futures markets, the test for market efficiency is conducted at numerous locations which comprise the, natural gas spot market in addition to the delivery location specified in the futures contract. Natural gas spot and futures prices are found to be nonstationary and accordingly are modeled using recently developed maximum likelihood cointegration techniques. The futures market price is found to be cointegrated with nearly all of the spot market prices across the national network of gas pipelines. The hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected in 3 of the 13 spot markets examined.



EnronOnline and Informational Efficiency in the U.S. Natural Gas Market

Donald Murry and Zhen Zhu

Year: 2004
Volume: Volume 25
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No2-3
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Abstract:
We investigate the impact of the introduction and exit of EnronOnline on the efficiency of the U.S. natural gas market. In particular, we examine the natural gas market informational efficiencies by investigating the time-series properties of natural gas prices: changes in natural gas price long-term dependency, comovement of the spot and futures prices, and changes in volatility patterns in the futures prices and spot prices at representative trading hubs. We find evidence that the introduction and demise of EOL coincided with the improvement and worsening in the degree of the market informational efficiency.





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