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Developing Countries' Greenhouse Emmissions: Uncertainty and Implications for Participation in the Kyoto Protocol

Randall Lutter

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No4-4
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Abstract:
Developing countries can participate in the Kyoto Protocol to limit greenhouse gas emissions by adopting national emissions limits. Such limits could offer economic gains to developing countries, cost savings to industrialized countries, and environmental benefits. They could also address concerns of the U. S. Senate. On the other hand, uncertainty about greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries is so great that emissions limits may impose substantial costs if they turn out to be unexpectedly stringent. To manage risks arising from emissions limits, developing countries should index any emissions limits to variables that predict emissions in the absence of limits. This paper presents such an index-similar to one recently adopted by Argentina-and develops estimates showing that it could lower the risk of economic losses to developing countries from about 40 percent to about 35 percent.



The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs

Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertrand Magne, Serban Scrieciu, Hal Turton, Detlef P. van Vuuren

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-2
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Abstract:
This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show that achieving low greenhouse gas concentration targets is technically feasible and economically viable. The ranking of the importance of individual technology options is robust across models. For the lowest stabilization target (400 ppm CO2 eq), the use of bio-energy in combination with CCS plays a crucial role, and biomass potential dominates the cost of reaching this target. Without CCS or the considerable extension of renewables the 400 ppm CO2 eq target is not achievable. Across the models, estimated aggregate costs up to 2100 are below 0.8% global GDP for 550 ppm CO2 eq stabilization and below 2.5% for the 400 ppm CO2 eq pathway.



Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in the U.S. Electric Sector: A ReEDS Analysis

Patrick Sullivan, Caroline Uriarte, and Walter Short

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.SI1.6
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Abstract:
We apply a U.S. electric-sector capacity-expansion and dispatch model to assess possible implications - changes in generation mix, system cost, CO2 emissions, distribution of renewable energy deployment - of a set of potential greenhouse gas mitigation policy options over a range of technology projections. The model used, ReEDS, provides unique spatial and temporal detail to ensure electric-system constraints of reliable load provision are maintained throughout the system's transformation. Keywords: Electricity capacity expansion, Greenhouse gas mitigation policy, Renewable energy technologies



A Clean Energy Standard Analysis with the US-REGEN Model

Geoffrey J. Blanford, James H. Merrick, and David Young

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.SI1.8
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Abstract:
A clean energy standard (CES) is a potential policy alternative to reduce carbon emissions in the electric sector. We analyze this policy under a range of technological assumptions, expanding on the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 24 study scenarios, using a new modeling tool, US-REGEN. We describe three innovative features of the model: treatment of spatial and temporal variability of renewable resources, cost-of-service electric sector pricing, and explicit representation of energy end-use specific capital. We find that varying technology assumptions results in vastly different futures, with large contrasts in the distribution and scale of inter-regional financial flows, and in the generation mix. We explore regional differences in how the costs of CES credits are passed through with cost-of-service vs. competitive pricing. Finally, we compare the CES to an economy-wide emissions cap. We find that although the two policies result in a similar generation mix, price and electricity end-use results differ. Keywords: Clean energy standard, Market-based environmental policy, Greenhouse gas mitigation, Energy modelling, Electricity modeling





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