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Regional Impacts of Petroleum Price Regulation: The Case of Texas, 1973-1983

Clifton T. Jones and Dale S. Bremmer

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-8
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Abstract:
A dynamic engineering-based econometric model of the Terns petroleum industry is used to jointly assess the impacts of federal price controls and the windfall profit tax, on both oil and gas supply, over the period 1973-1983. Comparing simulation results obtained using actual prices, and then counterfactual, uncontrolled prices, show small but persistent losses in above-ground production but considerably larger percentage impacts in drilling activity and new reserve additions. Thus, the long-run opportunity costs of post-embargo energy policy may not be fully reflected in traditional calculations that use constant supply elasticities to calculate annual supply impacts without regard to previous years' prices or production levels.



Economics of Electricity Self-Generation by Industrial Firms

Kenneth Rose and John F. McDonald

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
This study develops, and econometrically tests, a model explaining the relative importance of several key economic and engineering factors that industrial firms consider when deciding whether to self-generate or cogenerate electricity. The model and empirical results (based on data from the chemical and paper industries) suggest that industrial self-generation is determined by the derived demand for electricity, price of purchased electricity, and marginal cost of self-generation. The buyback rate was found to be important only when certain economic and engineering conditions are met -- such as a relatively low marginal cost and/or a sufficiently high buyback rate. The evidence presented suggests that for most (inns the buyback rate plays no role in determining the quantity of electricity demanded or produced. The results indicate that policy actions related to industrial cogeneration should focus on the price of electricity and factors that affect the plant's marginal cost of producing electricity.



A Short-Run Model of Petroleum Product Supply

Timothy J. Considine

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No2-4
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Abstract:
This paper presents a monthly econometric model of petroleum refining supply in the United States. The model is derived using a multiproduct restricted cost function with adjustment costs. The Euler equations are used to estimate the convenience yield from holding inventories. Short-run petroleum product prices are closely related to crude oil costs but the responses vary by product. Shipments and inventory levels are also important factors in short-run price determination. An examination of the distillate fuel oil price surge of December 1989 and the Exxon Valdez accident of March 1989 suggest that shifts in the derived demand for crude oil may be a major factor in the transmission of demand shocks to product prices.



Estimating Disaggregated Price Elasticities in Industrial Energy Demand

Mahmoud A. T Elkhafif

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No4-11
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Abstract:
Econometric energy models are used to evaluate past policy experiences, assess the impact of future policies and forecast energy demand. This paper estimates an industrial energy demand model for the province of Ontario using a linear-logit specification for fuel type equations which are embedded in an aggregate energy demand equation. Short term, long-term, own- and cross-price elasticities are estimated for electricity, natural gas, oil and coal. Own- and cross-price elasticities are disaggregated to show the overall price elasticities and the "energy-constant" price elasticities when aggregate energy use is held unchanged. These disaggregations suggest that a substantial part of energy conservation comes from the higher aggregate price of energy and not from interfuel substitution.



A Micro-Econometric Analysis of the Industrial Demand for Energy in NSW

Alan D. Woodland

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No2-4
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Abstract:
This paper analyzes an extensive data set consisting of observations on all manufacturing establishments in New South Wales, Australia over an eight-year period. The focus is on the determinants of the demands by manufacturing establishments for different fuels (namely coal, oil, gas and electricity) and, in particular, upon the responsiveness of the demands to changes in the prices of the various fuels, the wage rate, and the rental rate on capital. Particular attention is paid to the facts that (a) establishments have different patterns of fuel consumption and (b) gas and electricity have block-pricing structures. Estimates of own-price elasticities of demand for electricity, gas and oil are higher than appear in the literature.



Oil Shocks and the Demand for Electricity

Edward C Kokkelenberg and Timothy D. Mount

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No2-6
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Abstract:
This paper uses a Structural Econometric Model - Time Series Analysis to forecast the demand for electricity in the United States. The main innovation is to incorporate price shocks for oil into the model. The results show that if forecasts had been made with this model in the mid-1970s, they would have predicted the drop in the growth of demand more promptly than did the electric utility industry forecasts. Using current data, forecasts of demand for the year 2000 from the model are higher than industry forecasts, suggesting a reversal of the situation that existed in the 1970s.



Gasoline Demand in Developing Asian Countries

Robert McRae

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No1-9
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Abstract:
This paper presents econometric estimates of motor gasoline demand in eleven developing countries of Asia. The price and GDP per capita elasticities are estimated for each country separately, and for several pooled combinations of the countries. The estimated elasticities for the Asian countries are compared with those of the OECD countries. Generally, one finds that the OECD countries have GDP elasticities that are smaller, and price elasticities that are larger (in absolute value). The price elasticities for the low-income Asian countries are more inelastic than for the middle-income Asian countries, and the GDP elasticities are generally more elastic.



A Dynamic Model of Industrial Energy Demand in Kenya

Semboja Haji Hatibu Haji

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No4-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper analyses the effects of input price movements, technology changes, capacity utilization and dynamic mechanisms on energy demand structures in the Kenyan industry. This is done with the help of a variant of the second generation dynamic factor demand (econometric) model. This interrelated disequilibrium dynamic input demand econometric model is based on a long-term cost function representing production function possibilities and takes into account the asymmetry between variable inputs (electricity, other-fuels and labour) and quasi-fixed input (capital) by imposing restrictions on the adjustment process. Variations in capacity utilization and slow substitution process invoked by the relative input price movement justifies the nature of input demand disequilibrium. The model is estimated on two ISIC digit Kenyan industry time series data (1961 - 1988) using the Iterative Zellner generalized least square method.



How Many Kilowatts are in a Negawatt? Verifying Ex Post Estimates of Utility Conservation Impacts at the Regional Level

Paul W. Parfomak and Lester B. Lave

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No4-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
The current movement toward utility restructuring raises questions about the future of utility conservation programs, which have long suffered from illinformed and conflicting perceptions about their ability to affect customer loads. Controversy has arisen because of the inherent difficulty in measuring conservation impacts and because utilities have had clear economic incentives to overestimate impacts. This study uses econometric techniques to examine the aggregate commercial and industrial conservation impacts reported expost by 39 utilities in the Northeast U.S. and California through 1993. The study finds that 99.4% of the reported conservation impacts are statistically observable in system level sales after accounting for economic and weather effects. The results indicate that utility-run conservation programs have, indeed, been effective in reducing customer loads. The study finds no evidence the utilities have systematically overstated conservation effects.



Valuation of International Oil Companies

Petter Osmundsen, Frank Asche, Bard Misund, and Klaus Mohn

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No3-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
According to economic theory, exploration and development of new oil and gas fields should respond positively to increasing petroleum prices. But since the late 1990s, stock market analysts have focused strongly on short-term accounting return measures, like RoACE , for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. Consequently, exaggerated capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. Based on panel data for 14 international oil and gas companies for the period 1990-2003, we seek to establish econometric relations between market valuation on one hand, and simple financial and operational indicators on the other. Our findings do not support the general perception of RoACE as an important valuation metric in the oil and gas industry. We find that the variation in company valuations is mainly explained by the oil price, oil and gas production, and to some extent reserve replacement.




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