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The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective

Claudio Morana

Year: 2013
Volume: Volume 34
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.3.8
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Abstract:
We investigate the oil price-macroeconomy relationship from a global perspective, by means of a large scale macro-financial-econometric model. In addition to real activity, we consider fiscal and monetary policy responses and labor and financial markets conditions, in order to provide a comprehensive account of the macro-financial effects of oil price shocks. We find that oil market supply side, speculative, preferences, and volatility shocks exercised recessionary effects during the first and second Persian Gulf War and 2008 oil price episodes. As long as oil supply will keep expanding at a slower pace than required by demand conditions, and in so far as the recently passed regulatory provisions aimed at controlling financial speculation in the oil (and other commodities) futures market will prove unsuccessful, a recessionary bias, determined by higher and more uncertain real oil prices, may then be expected to persist also in the near future.



Non-discrimination Clauses: Their Effect on British Retail Energy Prices

Catherine Waddams Price and Minyan Zhu

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.2.cpri
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Abstract:
UK governments and the energy regulator have shown increasing concern about the health of competition in the residential energy market, following their pioneering deregulation at the end of the last century. We identify the effects of introducing the non-discrimination clauses in 2009, a major regulatory intervention and the first since deregulation. We explore the effect of this intervention on the price movements of the six major players, and find that the nature of competition in the industry has changed, with less effective rivalry between the regional incumbents and large regional competitors following the intervention; companies seem to have 'retreated' to their home regions, leaving a market where pricing behaviour resembles more closely a duopoly between British Gas and the regional incumbent.





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