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Still a Time to Choose ...Ten Years Later

S. David Freeman

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No2-2
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Abstract:
I think it is appropriate that we should end this conference on energy economics with a look at the record of the past nine years, the years since the energy world was turned upside down by the 1973 Arab oil embargo.This nation's foremost energy accomplishment of this period has not been in achieving increased production. Despite a tenfold increase in the price of crude oil, U.S. production in 1981 was about the same as in 1973. Natural gas production was down. Production of coal and uranium has gone up some, but overall, neither consumption nor domestic production of energy has increased in the last nine years.

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A Note on Rowen and Weyant,"Reducing the Economic Impacts of Oil Supply Interruptions: An International Perspective"

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No4-5
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Abstract:
Henry Rowen and John Weyant (1982) commit the classic error of trying to answer an important policy question with tools that do not fit the job. Nor does their care in attaching explicit caveats to their conclusions overcome the fact that the limitations of their approach are serious.The question of oil supply disruptions and their potential economic impact is indeed important, and it remains so despite slack oil markets. Policymakers may yet be faced with situations that require them to decide quickly on the advisability of emergency tariffs and other such measures; and they will need reasonable assurances that the caveats analysts attach to policy recommendations do not overwhelm the recommendations themselves. Just such a danger is inherent in the inappropriate application of models and the application of inappropriate models.

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Oil Supply Disruptions and the Role of the International Energy Agency

Douglas R. Bohi and Michael A. Toman

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No2-3
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Abstract:
This paper examines key crisis management provisions of the IEA Agreement in relation to the interests of member countries in energy security cooperation' and considers ways these interests might be further served by altering the agreement. Two observations underlie both the motivation and thrust of this investigation. The first is that the potential benefits to members of energy security cooperation are likely to be substantial.' Thus, it may be assumed that TEA members have an incentive to find methods inside or outside the agreement for reaping at least part of these gains. Given these incentives, it is important to consider how potential gains from cooperation can be achieved in practice.

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What Use the IEA Emergency Stockpiles? A Price-based Model of Oil Stock Management

Bright E. Okogu

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No1-5
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Abstract:
Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) has had a program of maintaining strategic oil stockpiles since 1974 in order to cope with unforeseen interruptions to supplies, it has failed to prevent the worst effects of the 1979 and recent interruptions. This paper develops a price-based model of stock management which is then used to simulate the management of an actual supply interruption. It is argued that such a system is more appropriate for the kind of net supply shortfalls that have been, or are likely to be, experienced than the current JEA program. The JEA program relies rigidly on a predetermined net quantity shortage to activate it -- a condition which almost guarantees that it will never be used in a real crisis. By contrast, the subtrigger approach proposed in this study has the advantage of flexibility and promptness of response which would make it relevant in a real supply interruption.

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On the Renewal of Concern for the Security of Oil Supply

Chantale LaCasse and Andre Plourde

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No2-1
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Abstract:
It seems curious that the security of oil supply would again emerge as a source of concern precisely when oil market conditions seem to be most favourable to oil-importing nations. We trace this development to the increased import volumes that have followed the 1986 collapse in the world oil price, and argue that concerns over the source of oil are of primary importance only in situations where physical availability is likely problematic. As the conception of security of supply is broadened, a distinction between random and strategic shocks is useful. Supply-side considerations, such as stockpiles, seem apt only to address the consequences of random shocks. As time horizons lengthen, supply-side measures lose their effectiveness, and demand-side considerations emerge as possible means of dampening the macroeconomic effects of future strategic shocks. Implementation remains an unresolved issue: the expected costs and benefits of specific interventions must still be compared.

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Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does the Asymmetry Reside?

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1998
Volume: Volume19
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-5
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Abstract:
Sustained decreases in crude oil prices appear to affect the U.S. economy differently than sustained increases. This paper shows that a significant part of the observed asymmetry is due to adjustments within the energy sector and not within the rest of the economy. In particular, sustained decreases in petroleum product or general energy prices do not appear to have qualitatively different macroeconomic impacts than do sustained price increases. The singular focus on crude oil price changes in previous studies is misplaced. Moreover, the 1986 oil price collapse did not operate in isolation from other important events. As crude oil prices fell in the 1986 period, other factors caused a major devaluation of the U.S. dollar that had potentially important effects on the U.S. economy.

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High Frequency Export and Price Responses in the Ontario Electricity Market

Angelo Melino and Nash Peerbocus

Year: 2008
Volume: Volume 29
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-No4-2
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Abstract:
Export responses to unanticipated price shocks can be a key contributing factor to the rapid mean reversion of electricity prices, a phenomenon often seen in electricity markets. In this paper, we use event analysis to demonstrate how hourly export transactions respond to negative supply shocks in the Ontario electricity market. Although event analysis has been used for many years in other applications, particularly finance, to our knowledge this is the first time that this technique has been applied to price response analysis in the electricity market. The analysis clearly demonstrates the sensitivity of export volume to price changes, and more generally, the responses of prices and quantities to an unexpected supply shock.

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Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market

Lutz Kilian

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No2-4
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Abstract:
The distinction between the price of gasoline in the U.S. and the price of crude oil in global markets is often ignored in discussions of the impact of higher energy prices. This article makes explicit the relationship between demand and supply shocks in these two markets. Building on a recently proposed structural VAR model of the global crude oil market, it explores the implications of a joint VAR model of the global market for crude oil and the U.S. market for motor gasoline. It is shown that it is essential to understand the origins of a given gasoline price shock, when assessing the responses of the price of gasoline and of gasoline consumption, since each demand and supply shock is associated with responses of different magnitude, pattern and persistence. The article assesses the overall importance of these shocks in explaining the variation in U.S. gasoline prices and consumption growth, as well as their relative contribution to the evolution of U.S. gasoline prices since 2002.

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The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 5
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.38.5.hhun
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Abstract:
Sustained energy price increases in the United States have preceded declines in economic activity as far back as 1890. This finding applies to two different historical GDP data sets. It suggests a much longer national experience with rising energy prices that began well before the period after World War Two. This problem emerged well before the U.S. transition towards petroleum products when coal was an important energy source. This relationship varies with the state of the economy and appears less evident during some periods, as in the years following the 1929 stock market crash.

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Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates

Mohamad B. Karaki

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.3.mkar
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Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of oil price shocks on U.S. state-level unemployment rates. First, using a test of symmetry, I evaluate whether the relationship between oil prices and state unemployment rates is symmetric. I find no evidence against the null of symmetry after accounting for data mining. Second, I use a symmetric structural VAR model to analyze the effect of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks on state unemployment. I find that an adverse supply shock triggers increases in unemployment, whereas a positive aggregate demand shock reduces the unemployment rate across most U.S. states. I also show that oil-specific demand shocks have little effect on state unemployment. Finally, I dig into the historical contribution of the various oil shocks to the changes in state unemployment rates during the shale boom period. I find that aggregate demand shocks contributed the most to the change of unemployment.

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