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Deregulating the Generation of Electricity Through the Creation of Spot Markets for Bulk Power

Roger E. Bohn, Bennett W. Golub, Richard D. Tabors, and Fred C. Schweppet

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No2-5
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Abstract:
Many observers are dissatisfied with the current condition of privately owned electric utilities in the United States. Numerous pro-posals have been made for change, including suggestions to deregulate all or part of the industry.' Those who favor deregulation argue that electric power systems, and especially electric generation, may no longer be natural monopolies. Furthermore, under the present regulatory regime, many utilities are refraining from investing, which is not in the best interests of their customers.2 Others, however, worry that quality and reliability of1. See Golub (1982, Chapter 2) for a review of the literature on deregulating electricutilities.2. A major electric utility's internal planning documents discussed the problem as follows. The ability to raise new capital is finite, and is especially limited given the current financial condition, the economy, and the regulatory climate. Thus, although the recommended investments ... will lead to a correct economic decision ... they may not be desirable due to other constraints [on the company] ... The document goes on to report that the company is not investing in coal projects, although such projects' long-term cost is one-third less than current anticipated generating costs.



An Econometric Analysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures

W. David Walls

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No1-5
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Abstract:
This research tests a form of the efficient markets hypothesis in the, market for natural gas futures. Unlike other studies of futures markets, the test for market efficiency is conducted at numerous locations which comprise the, natural gas spot market in addition to the delivery location specified in the futures contract. Natural gas spot and futures prices are found to be nonstationary and accordingly are modeled using recently developed maximum likelihood cointegration techniques. The futures market price is found to be cointegrated with nearly all of the spot market prices across the national network of gas pipelines. The hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected in 3 of the 13 spot markets examined.



The Development of a UK Natural Gas Spot Market

Joe Roeber

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No2-1
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Abstract:
This paper examines parallels between the evolution of spot markets jor oil during the 1980s, particularly Brent, and what is now happening in the UK gas industry. The structure of supply, formerly within the control of British Gas, is breaking up under antitrust and regulatory pressures, and the short-term balancing needs of the system are being externalised. This is giving rise to a spot market. This paper identifies four stages in the development of a spot market, of which the UK market is presently in the first and second stages (physical balancing and the development of price transparency). Feedback effects on prices are already apparent, and the fourth stage, the development of risk management tools, is being discussed. This scenario was drawn up three years ago, based upon the experience of oil before the existence of a gas spot market was acknowledged. It has so far not missed a step. According to this analysis, the question over the extension of this logic to the gas markets in Continental Europe is not whether, but when?



Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets

Marlin King and Milan Cuc

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No2-2
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Abstract:
In this paper we apply time-varying parameter (Kalman Filter) analysis to measure the degree of price convergence in North American natural gas spot markets. This statistical approach allows for an assessment of the strength of price convergence across various gas-producing basins. It is also a technique better suited than cointegration analysis because of the explicit presence of time varying parameters. Our results indicate that price convergence in natural gas spot markets has increased significantly since the price deregulation of the mid1980s. However, results to date indicate that there is still some way to go before one can speak of a single North American market for natural gas.



The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?

Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva

Year: 2013
Volume: Volume 34
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.3.2
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Abstract:
A popular view is that the surge in the real price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to tighten the regulation of oil derivatives markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting this view. We identify six strands in the literature and discuss to what extent each sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.



Towards an Integrated Spot LNG Market: An Interim Assessment

Xiaoyi Mu and Haichun Ye

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.1.xmu
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Abstract:
This paper examines whether, and to what extent, the spot LNG markets in different regions (East Asia, Iberia, Northwest Europe, and South America) are integrated and how market integration evolves over time. We first lay out a framework of market integration in the context of global LNG market where the main supplier (e.g. Qatar) may have market power. Estimating a time-varying coefficients model, we find that a varying degree of market integration exists between all four LNG indices particularly after the Fukushima incident in 2011. We complement the time-varying coefficient analysis with a test of price convergence among the LNG indices using the Phillips-Sul (2007) methodology. The results reveal that, there is strong evidence that the spot LNG prices are converging after the Fukushima accident and they are also converging with the price of NBP in the UK. The empirical result is consistent with the change of market power of the main supplier.



Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?

Anne Neumann

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI-12
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Abstract:
The increase in liquefied natural gas trade has accelerated the integration of previously segmented markets in North America, Europe, and Asia. This paper provides evidence on the integration of the transatlantic natural gas market; it thus complements other papers in the EMF 23 study that focus on prices and international natural gas trade. We test the theoretical proposition that in integrating markets commodity prices should move closer than before. Using 2,059 pairs of daily spot prices for natural gas in North America and Europe we investigate price dynamics covering the period from 1999 until 2008. We apply the Kalman Filter technique which measures convergence by allowing for dynamic structural change to gain detailed information on trends inherent in prices over time. Results suggest an increasing convergence of spot prices on either side of the Atlantic Basin.





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