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Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool"?

Robert J. Weiner

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No3-7
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Abstract:
Is there one, global market for crude oil? This appears to be the assumption made by most petroleum economists, stated succinctly by Adelman in a recent issue of The Energy Journak "The world oil market, like the world ocean, is one great pool" (July 1984, p. 5). Policymakers have often implicitly held the opposite assumption - that the world market is fragmented - as evidenced by the efforts of many importing-country governments to seek special arrangements for "secure supply" from exporters in the 1970s and early 1980s. Likewise, oil exporters have sought "secure outlets" for their crude in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These arrangements make no sense if the world crude oil market is integrated. In a similar fashion, a policy of diversifying suppliers, which is practised by many importers now, is senseless in a globally unified market.



Oil Price Forecasting in the 1980s: What Went Wrong?

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-1
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Abstract:
This paper reviews forecasts of oil prices over the 1980s that were made in 1980. It identifies the sources of errors due to such factors as exogenous GNP assumptions, resource supply conditions outside the cartel, and demand adjustments to price changes. Through 1986, the first two factors account for most of the difference between projected and actual prices. After 1986, misspecification of the demand adjustments becomes a particularly troublesome problem.





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