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Technological Change and International Trade - Insights from REMIND-R

Marian Leimbach, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Michael Luken and Ottmar Edenhofer

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-5
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Abstract:
Within this paper, we explore the technical and economic feasibility of very low stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentration based on the hybrid model REMIND-R. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC and the scientific literature have analyzed some low stabilization scenarios but with as yet little attention being given to the regional distribution of the global mitigation costs. Our study helps to fill this gap. While we examine how technological development and international trade affect mitigation costs, this paper is novel in addressing the interaction between both. Simulation results show for instance that reduced revenues from fossil fuel exports in a low stabilization scenario tend to increase mitigation costs borne by the exporting countries, but this impact varies with the technology options available. Furthermore it turns out that the use of biomass in combination with carbon capturing and sequestration is key in order to achieve ambitious CO2 reduction targets. Regions with high biomass potential can clearly benefit from the implementation of low stabilization scenarios due to advantages on the carbon market. This may even hold if a reduced biomass potential is assumed.



Modeling Low Climate Stabilization with E3MG: Towards a 'New Economics' Approach to Simulating Energy-Environment-Economy System Dynamics

Terry Barker and S. Serban Scrieciu

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-6
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Abstract:
The literature on climate stabilization modeling largely refers to either energy-system or inter-temporal computable general equilibrium/optimal growth models. We contribute with a different perspective by deploying a large-scale macro-econometric hybrid simulation model of the global energy�environment-economy (E3MG) adopting a �New Economics� approach. We use E3MG to assess the implications of a low-stabilization target of 400ppm CO2 equivalent by 2100, assuming both fiscal instruments and regulation. We assert that if governments adopt more stringent climate targets for rapid and early decarbonization, such actions are likely to induce more investment and increased technological change in favor of low-carbon alternatives. Contrary to the conventional view on the economics of climate change, a transition towards a low-carbon society as modeled with E3MG leads to macroeconomic benefits, especially in conditions of unemployment, with GDP slightly above a reference scenario, depending on use of tax or auction revenues. In addition, more stringent action can lead to higher benefits.



Bio-Energy Use and Low Stabilization Scenarios

Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elie Bellevrat, Alban Kitous and Morna Isaac

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper explores the potential for bio-energy production, and the implications of different values for the attainability of low stabilization targets. The impact of scenarios of future land use, yield improvements for bio-energy and available land under different sustainability assumptions (protection of biodiversity, risks of water scarcity and land degradation) are explored. Typical values for sustainable potential of bio-energy production are around 50-150 EJ in 2050 and 200-400 EJ in 2100. Higher bio-energy potential requires a development path with high agricultural yields, dietary patterns with low meat consumption, a low population and/or accepting high conversion rates of natural areas. Scenario analysis using four different models shows that low stabilization levels may be achieved with a bio-energy potential of around 200 EJ p.a. In such scenarios, bio-energy is in most models mainly used outside the transport sector.





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