Search

Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout

Search Results for All:
(Showing results 1 to 2 of 2)



EIA Storage Announcements, Analyst Storage Forecasts, and Energy Prices

Louis H. Ederington, Fang Lin, Scott C. Linn, and Lisa (Zongfei) Yang

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.5.lede
View Abstract

Abstract:
Exploring properties both of the EIA's natural gas and crude oil storage announcements and of analyst forecasts of the EIA storage figures, we find that analyst storage forecasts bring additional information to the market beyond seasonal patterns and past storage flows and that the market promptly incorporates analyst forecasts into oil and gas prices prior to the EIA announcements. Analyst's natural gas forecasts efficiently impound the available time-series information but crude oil forecasts do not. We further find that the price reaction to subsequent EIA natural gas storage announcements is contingent on the level of analyst forecast uncertainty as proxied by analyst forecast disagreement. Storage flows higher or lower than analysts had expected one week tend to be partially reversed the following week and analyst forecast dispersion regarding future forecasts increases following large forecast errors.



Natural Gas Storage Forecasts: Is the Crowd Wiser?

Adrian Fernandez-Perez, Alexandre Garel, and Ivan Indriawan

Year: 2020
Volume: Volume 41
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.5.afer
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper examines the usefulness of crowdsourced relative to professional forecasts for natural gas storage changes. We find that crowdsourced forecasts are less accurate than professional forecasts on average. We investigate possible reasons for this inferior performance and find evidence of a greater divergence of opinions and a lower incorporation of publicly available information among crowd analysts. We further show that crowdsourced consensus forecast does not influence the market�s expectation of gas storage changes beyond what is already contained in professional consensus forecast, suggesting that crowdsourced forecasts provide little new information. Overall, our results indicate that the incremental usefulness of crowdsourced forecasts for gas market stakeholders is very limited.





Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout

 

© 2021 International Association for Energy Economics | Privacy Policy | Return Policy