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Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in the U.S. Electric Sector: A ReEDS Analysis

Patrick Sullivan, Caroline Uriarte, and Walter Short

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.SI1.6
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Abstract:
We apply a U.S. electric-sector capacity-expansion and dispatch model to assess possible implications - changes in generation mix, system cost, CO2 emissions, distribution of renewable energy deployment - of a set of potential greenhouse gas mitigation policy options over a range of technology projections. The model used, ReEDS, provides unique spatial and temporal detail to ensure electric-system constraints of reliable load provision are maintained throughout the system's transformation. Keywords: Electricity capacity expansion, Greenhouse gas mitigation policy, Renewable energy technologies



Achieving the Clean Power Plan 2030 CO2 Target with the New Normal in Natural Gas Prices

Jeffrey C. Peters and Thomas W. Hertel

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.5.jpet
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Abstract:
The U.S. Clean Power Plan (CPP) seeks to reduce CO2 emissions from electric power by 32% from 2005 levels, in part, by adjusting the generation mix. Generating technologies can substitute via two distinct, but interdependent mechanisms: i) utilization - i.e. adjustment of operations of existing capacity and ii) expansion - i.e. decommissioning and construction of capacity. We develop a framework for analyzing these interdependent mechanisms, then construct and validate an empirical model of the U.S. electricity sector using recent data. Assuming current low gas prices persist, increasing utilization of gas (at the expense of higher-emitting coal) will drive higher returns to gas capacity. As a result, under our business-as-usual scenario for 2030 (no CPP) we project approximately 26% less CO2 emissions than 2005 levels, indicating that the CPP target could be met with only limited policy intervention.



On the Role of Risk Aversion and Market Design in Capacity Expansion Planning

Christoph Fraunholz, Kim K. Miskiw, Emil Kraft, Wolf Fichtner, and Christoph Weber

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.2.cfra
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Abstract:
Investment decisions in competitive power markets are based upon thorough profitability assessments. Thereby, investors typically show a high degree of risk aversion, which is the main argument for capacity mechanisms being implemented around the world. In order to investigate the interdependencies between investors' risk aversion and market design, we extend the agent-based electricity market model PowerACE to account for long-term uncertainties. This allows us to model capacity expansion planning from an agent perspective and with different risk preferences. The enhanced model is then applied in a multi-country case study of the European electricity market. Our results show that assuming risk-averse rather than risk-neutral investors leads to slightly reduced investments in dispatchable capacity, higher wholesale electricity prices, and reduced levels of resource adequacy. These effects are more pronounced in an energy-only market than under a capacity mechanism. Moreover, uncoordinated changes in market design may also lead to negative cross-border effects.





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