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Demand for Electricity of Small Nonresidential Customers under Time-Of-Use (TOU) Pricing

Chi-Keung Woo

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No4-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
After the oil crisis of 1973, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in 1976 ordered Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGandE) to charge its large nonresidential customers with monthly billing demand of over 4000 kilowatts (kW) mandatory time-of-use rates. Using a translog (TLOG) specification attributable to Christensen, Jorgenson, and Lau (1973), Chung and Aigner (1981) estimate the electricity demand price elasticities by time-of-use for 64 of these customers in 13 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code groups. Own-price elasticity estimates are generally around -0.1 and at times can be as high as -0.5, or they have the wrong sign. Cross-price elasticity estimates indicate that electricity usages by time-of-use are mostly substitutes. However, the estimated price responsiveness typically is larger than observed usages (see below and the section, Experimental Design and Data). Moreover, positive own-price elasticity estimates, though not statistically significant, raise further doubts about the validity of empirical results.



Regulatory View of Capacity Valuation in California

Eric Woychik

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Special Issue 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-NoSI2-4
No Abstract



Energy Demand with the Flexible Double-Logarithmic Functional Form

Gehuang D. Nan and Donald A. Murry

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No4-8
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Abstract:
A flexible double-logarithmic function form is developed to meet assumptions of consumer behavior. Then annual residential and commercial data (1970-87) are applied to this functional form to examine demand for petroleum products, electricity, and natural gas in California. The traditional double lo-linear functional form has shortcomings ofconstant elasticities. The regression equations in this study, with varied estimated elasticities, overcome some of these shortcomings. All short-run own-price elasticities are inelastic and all income elasticities are close to unity inthis study. According to the short-run time-trend elasticities, consumers' fuel preference in California is electricity. The long-run income elasticities also indicate that the residential consumers will consume more electricity and natural gas as their energy budgets increase in the long run.



Forecasting the Market for Electric Vehicles in California Using Conjoint Analysis

Robin Segal

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No3-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
Beginning in 1998 a percentage of large auto companies' sales in California must include zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), which at this time art! synonymous with electric vehicles. Data on consumer values and the level of consumer acceptance for alternative fuel vehicles are necessary to determine the practicality of the State's policy. This paper presents the results of a forecast for alternative fuel vehicle purchases in California. This forecast uses conjoint analysis, a multi-attribute utility market forecast methodology developed within the field of marketing research. The forecast yields several types of results, including market simulations of the alternative fuel vehicle market, relative preferences among vehicle attributes, and the identification of market segments most likely to purchase each type of vehicle. The research suggests a market for electric vehicles too small to support California's ZEV sales mandate, and a very, large market for natural gas vehicles. This paper concludes with a discussion of automobile and electric utility industry interests with regard to these forecast market consequences.



A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000

Paul L. Joskow and Edward Kohn

Year: 2002
Volume: Volume23
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol23-No4-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
During the Summer of 2000, wholesale electricity prices in California were nearly 500% higher than they were during the same months in 1998 or 1999. This price explosion was unexpected and has called into question whether electricity restructuring will bring the benefits of competition promised to consumers. The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors that explain this increase in wholesale electricity prices. We simulate competitive benchmark prices for Summer of 2000 taking account of all relevant supply and demand factors-gas prices, demand, imports from other states, and emission permit prices. We then compare the simulated competitive benchmark prices with the actual prices observed. We find that there is a large gap between our benchmark competitive prices and observed prices, suggesting that the prices observed during Summer 2000 reflect, in part, the exercise of market power by suppliers. We then proceed to examine supplier behavior during high price hours. We find evidence that suppliers withheld supply from the market that would have been profitable for price-taking firms to sell at the market price.



Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability

Severin Borenstein

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No2-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
One of the most critical concerns that customers have voiced in the debate over real-time retail electricity pricing is that they would be exposed to risk from fluctuations in their electricity cost. The concern seems to be that a customer could find itself consuming a large quantity of power on the day that prices skyrocket, resulting in a high monthly bill. I analyze the magnitude of this risk, using demand data from 1142 large industrial customers, and then ask how much of this risk can be eliminated through various straightforward financial instruments. I find that very simple hedging strategies�forward purchase contracts that are already used with many RTP programs�can eliminate more than 80% of the bill volatility that would otherwise occur. I then show that a slightly more sophisticated application of these forward power purchases can significantly enhance their effect on reducing bill volatility.



Wealth Transfers Among Large Customers from Implementing Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing

Severin Borenstein

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No2-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Adoption of real-time electricity pricing�retail prices that vary hourly to reflect changing wholesale prices removes existing cross-subsidies to those customers that consume disproportionately more when wholesale prices are highest. If their losses are substantial, these customers are likely to oppose RTP initiatives unless there is a supplemental program to offset their loss. Using data on a sample of 1142 large industrial and commercial customers in northern California, I show that RTP adoption would result in significant transfers compared to a flat-rate tariff. When compared to the time-of-use rates (simple peak/offpeak tariffs) that these customers already face, however, the transfers drop by up to 45%; even under the more extreme price volatility scenario that I examine, 90% of customers would see changes of between a 4% bill reduction and an 8% bill increase. Though customer price responsiveness reduces the loss incurred by those with high-cost demand profiles, I also demonstrate that this offsetting effect is unlikely to be large enough for most customers with costly demand patterns to completely offset their lost cross-subsidy. The analysis suggests that adoption of real-time pricing may be difficult without a supplemental program that compensates the customers who are made worse off by the change. I examine possible �two-part RTP� programs, which allow customers to purchase a baseline quantity at regulated TOU rates, and show they can be used to greatly reduce the transfers associated with adoption of RTP.



The Supply of Storage for Natural Gas in California

Rocío Uría and Jeffrey Williams

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No3-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Do natural gas storage decisions in distant California respond to NYMEX futures price spreads? Daily data about flows into and out of storage facilities in California over 2002-2006 and daily spreads on NYMEX are used to investigate whether the net injection profile is consistent with the supply-of-storage curve first observed by Working for wheat. Storage decisions in California do seem to be influenced by a price signal that combines the intertemporal spread and the locational basis between California and the Henry Hub, in addition to strong seasonal and weekly cycles that determine net injections to a considerable extent. The timing and magnitude of the price response differ across storage facilities. Regulatory requirements and operational constraints also limit the response to short-lived arbitrage opportunities.



Learning-by-Doing and the Optimal Solar Policy in California

Arthur van Benthem, Kenneth Gillingham and James Sweeney

Year: 2008
Volume: Volume 29
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-No3-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Much policy attention has been given to promote fledgling energy technologies that promise to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. These policies often aim to correct market failures, such as environmental externalities and learning�by-doing (LBD). We examine the implications of the assumption that LBD exists, quantifying the market failure due to LBD. We develop a model of technological advancement based on LBD and environmental market failures to examine the economically efficient level of subsidies in California�s solar photovoltaic market. Under central-case parameter estimates, including nonappropriable LBD, we find that maximizing net social benefits implies a solar subsidy schedule similar in magnitude to the recently implemented California Solar Initiative. This result holds for a wide range of LBD parameters. However, with no LBD, the subsidies cannot be justified by the environmental externality alone.



The Market Effects of Going Green: Evidence from California's Wholesale Reformulated Gasoline Market

Jennifer L. Brown

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No3-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the market changes that occurred in California's refining industry following the 1992 implementation of the California Air Resources Board's Phase II reformulated gasoline regulations. This paper uses monthly panel data to determine the impact that these regulations have had on the disparity between California's finished gasoline rack prices and that in other regions of the country. The findings suggest that large refiner compliance to Phase II increased the rack price of finished gasoline in California as compared with other regions. This relative price increase, which was likely triggered by the increased production costs associated with Phase II, is consistent with similar results found throughout the literature. However, as small refiners were required to comply with these regulations, this analysis finds that the premium paid for finished gasoline in California increased significantly. This additional increase in the rack price differential, along with trends in industry concentration, suggests that Phase II may have disproportionately disadvantaged California's small refiners, causing increased profits and market share for larger competitors.




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