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Pipeline Capacity Rationing and Crude Oil Price Differentials: The Case of Western Canada

W.D. Walls and Xiaoli Zheng

Year: 2020
Volume: Volume 41
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.1.wwal
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Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of pipeline capacity constraints on the discount of Canadian oil prices relative to U.S. benchmark oil prices. Using a panel of monthly data for Canadian oil exporting pipelines, we estimate that price differentials between U.S. markets and Western Canada would increase by 3.6% for 1% increase in pipeline capacity constraints. Pipeline capacity constraints in Canada have resulted in an average loss of $5.53 for every barrel of crude oil exported to the U.S. between 2009 and 2017. In 2015 and 2016, the losses due to insufficient pipeline capacity were equivalent to 3%-5% of the Canadian oil and gas industry's sales revenue and 69%-102% of its royalty payments to provincial governments. Western Canadian oil refiners and refined products' consumers benefit from the depressed crude oil prices. However, the total gains captured by local refiners and consumers are much smaller than the losses of the upstream sector.



Fracking and Structural Shifts in Oil Supply

W.D. Walls and Xiaoli Zheng

Year: 2022
Volume: Volume 43
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.3.wwal
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Abstract:
The adoption of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling technology substantively altered the structure of oil supply. Using disaggregate state-level data from the U.S, this paper provides empirical evidence that oil supplies are now asymmetric with respect to price changes as a result of the adoption of new production methods. The changed structure of U.S. oil supply—particularly the low supply elasticities for price declines and large supply elasticities for price increases—is consistent with the ineffectiveness of OPEC policies intended to drown fracking American producers in oil.





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