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CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Cost Analysis for the USA

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-3
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Abstract:
This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis of controlling or decreasing C02 emissions. It uses an analytical framework, called Global 2100, which is designed to evaluated C02 energy economy interactions and estimate the cost of a carbon emissions limit. It analyzes three demand parameters (potential GNP growth, elasticity of price induced substitution between capital-labour and energy, and the rate of autonomous energy efficiency improvements) which are crucial to the debate over energy and environmental futures. The paper discusses various energy sources which are either presently in use or will possibly be in use in the future, and analyzes their impact on cost-benefit analyses. Finally, the paper analyzes the results of carbon constraints and suggests that there is need for more research and development on the subject.

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The Costs of Reducing U.S. CO2 Emissions - Further Sensitivity Analyses

Alan S. Mann and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No4-4
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Abstract:
In a previous paper, we used the Global 2100 model to explore the implications of a carbon constraint upon domestic energy costs and the resulting effects on the U.S. economy as a whole (Manne and Richels (1990). The impact of a CO2 limit will depend on the technologies and resources available for meeting demands as well as on the demands themselves. Given the enormous uncertainty surrounding these factors, losses were calculated under alternative assumptions about each.

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Global CO2 Emission Reductions - the Impacts of Rising Energy Costs

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-6
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Abstract:
In this paper, we explore how the costs of a CO2 limit are likely to vary among regions. The analysis is based on Global 2100: an analytical framework for estimating the economy-wide impacts of rising energy costs. We investigate how emissions are likely to evolve in the absence of a carbon limit, and how the regional pattern is likely to shift during the nest century. We then examine alternative strategies to limit global emissions, calculate the impacts of higher energy costs upon conventionally measured GDP, and indicate the size of the carbon tax that would be required to induce individual consumers to reduce their dependence on carbon-intensive fuels.

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The Costs of Stabilizing Global CO2 Emissions: A Probabilistic Analysis Based on Expert Judgments

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No1-3
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Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the economic costs of stabilizing global CO2 emissions at 1990 levels. Previous analyses of the costs of emissions abatement have tended to be deterministic. That is, no attempt was made to assign probabilities to various scenarios. Policy-makers need information both on the range of possible outcomes and on their relative likelihood. We use a probability poll to characterize the uncertainty surrounding critical parameters and to construct probability distributions over the outcomes of interest. The analysis suggests a wide range for abatement costs. In order to stabilize global emissions, the annual price tag lies between a 2 and 6.8 percent of gross world product. This distribution is highly skewed. The expected costs are approximately 1.5 percent.

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The Kyoto Protocol: A Cost-Effective Strategy for Meeting Environmental Objectives?

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-2
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Abstract:
This paper has three purposes: 1) to identify the near-term costs to the United States of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol; 2) to assess the significance of the Protocol's "flexibility provisions"; and, 3) to evaluate the Kyoto targets in the context of the long-term goal of the Framework Convention. We find that the short-term U.S. abatement costs of implementing this Protocol are likely to be substantial. These costs can be reduced through international trade in emission rights. The magnitude of the costs will be determined by the number of countries participating in the trading market, the shape of each country's marginal abatement cost curve, and the extent to which buyers can satisfy their obligation through the purchase of emission rights. Finally and perhaps most important: unless the ultimate concentration target is well below 550 ppmv, the Protocol seems to be inconsistent with a long-term strategy for stabilizing global concentrations.

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The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Sinks in Meeting Climate Objectives

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-20
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Abstract:
When conducting a multi-gas analysis, there are distinct advantages in moving from concentrations to radiative forcing. With the former, it is customary to use Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for making tradeoffs among greenhouse gases. A number of studies have shown the arbitrariness of this approach and have argued that tradeoffs should be based on the contribution of each gas to achieving a particular target.1 Focusing on radiative forcing bypasses the need to rely on GWPs and provides for tradeoffs among gases based on their relative value.

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