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Disentangling The Effects of oil Shocks: The Role of Rigidities and Monetary Policy

Carlos de Miguel , Baltasar Manzano, Jose M. Martin-Moreno and Jesus Ruiz

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Special Issue #2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI2-9
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Abstract:
Using a new Keynesian, stochastic, dynamic model of a small open monetary economy that imports oil and applying it to the Spanish economy, this paper addresses the question of why the effects of oil shocks from the mid-1980�s on output and inflation were smaller. We depart from the previous literature on this topic by simulating a theoretical model whose parameters are estimated using Kalman Filter techniques. The paper is particularly appealing to study the effects of high energy prices, which would be associated to climate change policies, and to the feedback effects of those policies on the economy. The results of the paper support the hypothesis of smaller macroeconomic effects of oil shocks from the mid-1980�s. The results emerge from the different features of the economy: both labor market rigidities and the oil share have decreased over time and the monetary policy has changed in that it is more focused on controlling inflation.



Fossil Fuel Price Shocks and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Spain

Jorge Blazquez, Jose Maria Martin-Moreno, Rafaela Perez, and Jesus Ruiz

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 6
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.6.jmar
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Abstract:
This paper focuses on the impact of oil, natural gas and coal price shocks on the Spanish business cycle from 1969 to 2013. It uses Bayesian procedures to estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for a small open economy. The paper shows that natural gas and coal shocks are relevant sources of macroeconomic disruption in addition to oil price shocks. The three fossil fuel prices have an impact on the economic activity and explain the evolution of the energy mix. However, we find that oil price shocks have a significantly larger impact on economic volatility. Finally, we assess the impact of hydrocarbon price shocks on carbon emissions given that different price shocks result in a different fossil fuel mix and, thus, in different CO2 emissions.





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