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The Use of NYMEX Options to Forecast Crude Oil Prices

James A. Overdahl and H. Lee Matthews

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No4-7
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Abstract:
The recent introduction of traded options on crude oil futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) gives energy economists a new tool for forecasting the price of crude oil. Since the pricing of these options requires that market participants assess the probability distribution of future crude oil prices, a properly specified model of option pricing can be used to "back out" this assessment from observed option prices.





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