IAEE Members and subscribers to The Energy Journal: Please log in to access the full text article or receive discounted pricing for this article.

Prepress Content: The following article is a preprint of a scientific paper that has completed the peer-review process and been accepted for publication within The Energy Journal.

While the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) makes every effort to ensure the veracity of the material and the accuracy of the data therein, IAEE is not responsible for the citing of this content until the article is actually printed in a final version of The Energy Journal. For example, preprinted articles are often moved from issue to issue affecting page numbers, and actual volume and issue numbers. Care should be given when citing Energy Journal preprint articles.

Structural Transformation Options of the Saudi Economy Under Constraint of Depressed World Oil Prices

Abstract:
We implement the hybrid (energy-economy) recursive-dynamic multisector IMACLIM model with important adaptations to Saudi macroeconomics. We design two scenarios reflecting both the Saudi Vision 2030 economic development program and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to greenhouse gas mitigation: Continuity of previous plans to expand energy-intensive activities under maintained energy-pricing policies, versus Transformation by economic diversification away from hydrocarbon-related activities and fiscal and energy-pricing reforms. We show that, compared to Continuity, Transformation improves activity, employment and public budget outlooks, while considerably abating the energy intensity of GDP and total CO2 emissions. Our results thus point at the relevance of economic diversification as both a hedging strategy against international climate change mitigation depressing oil markets and a national climate mitigation strategy for Saudi Arabia. However, the successful advancement of the reforms necessary for diversification remains conditional to setting a suitable institutional framework for a competitive economy.

Download Executive Summary Purchase ( $25 )

Download Appendix 

Keywords: Economic diversification, General equilibrium, Oil-exporting country, Climate policy

DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.3.ssou

References: Reference information is available for this article. Join IAEE, log in, or purchase the article to view reference data.

Published in Volume 43, Number 3 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.

 

© 2021 International Association for Energy Economics | Privacy Policy | Return Policy