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The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs

Abstract:
This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show that achieving low greenhouse gas concentration targets is technically feasible and economically viable. The ranking of the importance of individual technology options is robust across models. For the lowest stabilization target (400 ppm CO2 eq), the use of bio-energy in combination with CCS plays a crucial role, and biomass potential dominates the cost of reaching this target. Without CCS or the considerable extension of renewables the 400 ppm CO2 eq target is not achievable. Across the models, estimated aggregate costs up to 2100 are below 0.8% global GDP for 550 ppm CO2 eq stabilization and below 2.5% for the 400 ppm CO2 eq pathway.

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Energy Specializations: Energy Modeling – Other; Energy and the Environment – Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases; Energy and the Environment – Air Emissions (other than greenhouse gases); Energy and the Environment – Policy and Regulation

JEL Codes:
C59 - Econometric Modeling: Other
Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
Q52 - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
E60 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General

Keywords: Greenhouse gas mitigation, model comparison, Low stabilization, MERGE-ETL, REMIND-R, POLES, TIMER, E3MG

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-2

References: View References


Published in Volume 31, Special Issue of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.